TY - JOUR
T1 - Critical material and regional inequality
T2 - Material demand under diverging decarbonization pathways in China's power sector
AU - Zhang, Haotian
AU - Wang, Zhaohua
AU - Wang, Can
AU - Ding, Yueting
AU - Shen, Zhiyang
AU - Blancard, Stéphane
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2026/1/1
Y1 - 2026/1/1
N2 - China's power sector decarbonization is crucial for global climate goals. However, regional disparities in decarbonization pathways and material demands arise due to differences in resource endowment, economic development, and policy support. This study develops an integrated assessment model to evaluate critical material demand for decarbonizing China's power sector under four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy (RE), Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and Advanced Nuclear (AN). The results show significant provincial variations, with eastern provinces favoring wind and solar, while western and coal-dependent regions rely on hydropower or CCS. Nationally, material demand peaks in the CCS scenario by 2060, especially for structural materials like copper (2250 Mt) and nickel (445 Mt). Functional materials such as silicon and indium see significant demand increases under PV-driven transitions, with silicon reaching 9300 kt and indium 14.2 Mt by 2060 in the RE scenario. These findings highlight the need for region-specific policies, long-term material supply planning, and addressing material demand imbalances for a sustainable energy transition.
AB - China's power sector decarbonization is crucial for global climate goals. However, regional disparities in decarbonization pathways and material demands arise due to differences in resource endowment, economic development, and policy support. This study develops an integrated assessment model to evaluate critical material demand for decarbonizing China's power sector under four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy (RE), Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and Advanced Nuclear (AN). The results show significant provincial variations, with eastern provinces favoring wind and solar, while western and coal-dependent regions rely on hydropower or CCS. Nationally, material demand peaks in the CCS scenario by 2060, especially for structural materials like copper (2250 Mt) and nickel (445 Mt). Functional materials such as silicon and indium see significant demand increases under PV-driven transitions, with silicon reaching 9300 kt and indium 14.2 Mt by 2060 in the RE scenario. These findings highlight the need for region-specific policies, long-term material supply planning, and addressing material demand imbalances for a sustainable energy transition.
KW - Critical materials
KW - Integrated assessment model
KW - Material flow analysis
KW - Power sector decarbonization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105012962772
U2 - 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108542
DO - 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108542
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105012962772
SN - 0921-3449
VL - 224
JO - Resources, Conservation and Recycling
JF - Resources, Conservation and Recycling
M1 - 108542
ER -