Mitigating regional employment disparities through flexible coal power phasedown and workforce resettlement

Coal power phasedown in China could exacerbate regional employment disparities, particularly in coal-dependent provinces. With coal power increasingly serving as a flexible backup for renewable energy integration, reducing utilization rates has been proposed to balance decarbonization and grid stability. However, the socio-economic impacts of this approach remain unclear. This study quantifies how reductions in utilization rates, coupled with workforce resettlement strategies, can mitigate employment disparities under 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets. Through unit-level analysis and Integrated Assessment Model simulations, we find that achieving climate targets could risk up to 480,000 jobs nationwide by 2060, where northern provinces facing 2.6 times job losses of southern coastal regions before 2030. Lowering utilization rates preserves up to 23.6% of jobs in key northern provinces (e.g. Shandong) by 2040, postpones the national peak unemployment period by 10–15 years, and reduces peak losses by 23.8%, creating a critical buffer for regional energy and economic transition. Redeployment among workforce resettlement strategies incurs the lowest per capita cost (140,800 RMB), which should be prioritized for workforce resettlement. Through a combination of lower utilization rate and resettlement portfolio strategies, it is possible to reduce resettlement cost by 2.27∼2.58 billion RMB. But Coal-dependent provinces like Shandong and Inner Mongolia still face high economic burdens due to larger job losses scales. The employment disparities during the coal power transition requires region-specific strategies and sustained policy support. Our findings offer practical insights for a just transition in China and other coal-reliant economies. KEY POLICY INSIGHTS The phasedown of coal power is essential for achieving climate targets. However, for this transition to succeed, it is crucial that it be carried out in a fair and equitable way, addressing the socio-economic impacts on affected regions and workers. In order to ease transitions in high-impact regions, coal power retirement timelines should be tailored by provincial governments, considering local economic dependence and workforce risks as well as flexible operational adjustments of power plants. Integrate renewable energy development with comprehensive social protection systems in coal-intensive regions to ensure a just transition through coordinated industrial and labour market policies.